Nor'Easter Briefing
Potential significant winter storm targeting Northeast United States January 28-30, 2026
📋 Executive Summary
High confidence continues to increase for a significant Nor'Easter to impact the Northeast United States between late Tuesday and Thursday. Trends in model guidance suggest a track favorable for heavy snow across interior portions of New England and the Mid-Atlantic, with a sharp gradient to mixing/rain near the coast.
Primary Concerns: Heavy snowfall rates exceeding 1-2"/hour, blizzard conditions possible along immediate coastline, significant coastal flooding during high astronomical tides, and damaging wind gusts 40-60 mph.
Uncertainty: Exact rain/snow line position remains the primary forecast challenge. A shift of just 50 miles in storm track could dramatically alter snow totals for major metropolitan areas including Boston, Hartford, and Providence.
📊 Threat Assessment
Total Snowfall
Interior Southern New England
Local amounts 20"+ possible
Wind Gusts
mph along coast
Blizzard criteria possible
Storm Surge
inundation above ground
Major coastal flooding
⏱️ Storm Timeline
All times ESTStorm Approach & Onset
Precipitation begins across Long Island and Southern Connecticut. Initial rain/snow line setup critical. Dry slot potential needs monitoring. Temperatures fall rapidly as dynamic cooling takes over.
Heavy Snow Phase
Peak intensity period. Snow rates 1-3"/hour with embedded convective bands. Thundersnow possible. Winds increase to 30-40 mph gusts. Coastal flood threat begins with evening high tide.
Peak Storm Impact
Heaviest snow accumulations. Blizzard conditions possible Eastern MA coast. Major travel disruptions. Highest coastal flooding risk with astronomical high tide (full moon). Power outages increase.
Tapering & Backside Snow
Orographic enhancement continues Berkshires/Greens. Ocean effect snow bands possible. Winds slowly diminish. Final accumulations occur overnight. Cleanup operations begin Thursday.
🗺️ Regional Forecast
🏙️ I-95 Corridor
Boston to NYC corridor sees rain/snow line battle. Expect rapid changeover Tuesday evening. Lower totals due to mixing, but high impact from wind and coastal flooding.
🏔️ Interior New England
Worcester Hills, NW CT, Western MA, Southern VT/NH jackpot zone. All snow, highest totals, dangerous travel, potential for widespread power outages.
🌊 Cape & Islands
Mainly rain/mix, but major coastal flooding threat. 60+ mph gusts possible. Beach erosion and overwash likely. Blizzard conditions possible even with lower snow totals.
🏘️ Northern New England
Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine interior see significant snow. Dry snow with high ratios (15:1+). Blowing/drifting snow major issue. Travel becomes impossible Wednesday.
✅ Preparedness Checklist
Actions to complete by Tuesday evening
Power banks, phones, laptops. Download offline entertainment.
7-day supply recommended. Refill now before travel becomes difficult.
Ensure alternative heating sources work safely. Stock propane/kerosene.
Full gas tank, emergency kit, blankets. Avoid travel Wednesday.
Bring in furniture, trash cans. Secure decorations. Charge snowblower.
3 days non-perishable food. 1 gallon water per person/day.
Monitor tide charts. Prepare for evacuation if in flood zones.
Multiple ways to receive warnings. NOAA Weather Radio, apps, local media.
🔬 Meteorological Discussion
Synoptic Setup: A vigorous shortwave trough currently digging into the Midwest will phase with a coastal front Tuesday evening, allowing for rapid cyclogenesis off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The 500mb pattern favors a negatively tilted trough, classic for significant Nor'Easter development.
Thermal Profile: A deep isothermal layer near 0°C exists from 850-700mb, supporting high snow ratios initially. However, warming at 925mb from marine influence creates the rain/snow line uncertainty. Dynamic cooling from intense lift may overcome this along the I-95 corridor, but coastal plain remains problematic.
Jet Dynamics: 130+ knot upper jet streak with divergence maxima positioned directly over Southern New England Tuesday night. This favors mesoscale banding with snowfall rates potentially exceeding 3"/hour in narrow zones. Mesoscale snow bands are notoriously difficult to pinpoint 48 hours out.
Coastal Flooding: Astronomical tides are running high (full moon January 23). Storm surge of 2-4 feet combined with 15-20 foot waves creates moderate to major coastal flooding potential. Backshore flooding likely during Wednesday morning high tide cycle.
Model Consensus: Both ECMWF and GFS have converged on a track ~50 miles east of the benchmark (40N 70W). This is the "sweet spot" for Southern New England snowstorms. Ensemble spread remains tight, increasing confidence. CMC is slightly west, suggesting higher totals west of I-95.
📚 Historical Analogs
Similar storms in the historical record for comparison
| January 4-5, 2018 | "Grayson" - Similar track, 18" Boston, blizzard criteria met |
| February 8-9, 2013 | "Nemo" - Phasing event, 24" Hartford, major coastal flooding |
| December 26-27, 2010 | Post-Christmas storm, 20" Worcester, I-95 mix zone |
| February 25-26, 2022 | Recent analog, rapid deepening, 18" interior MA |